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This Friday, fans of MMA will be treated to an abundance of free fights, as the UFC returns to Nashville, Tennessee for the first time since UFC Fight Night 18: Condit vs Kampmann in April 2009. UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller (also known as UFC on FX 1), the first full fight card on FX, will feature a lightweight tilt between former top contenders Melvin "The Young Assassin" Guillard and Jim Miller. Both men recently tore through the UFC lightweight division, before learning the hard way how deep and tough the division really is.
However, aside from the headliner, this card boasts an excellent main and preliminary card, from top to bottom, and with every single fight being aired on free TV (FX for the main card, FUEL TV for the prelims), fans will have a chance to see UFC veterans and newcomers state their claim and try to make waves in their respective divisions.
Here is my breakdown of the card:
Preliminary Card (live on FUEL TV)
Bantamweight bout: Joseph Sandoval (6-1) vs. Nick Denis (10-2)
Sandoval's UFC career had a rocky start, being picked apart quickly by Walel Watson at UFC Live: Cruz vs. Johnson. The former Shark Fights Bantamweight Champ has a sub-par fighting resume, but possesses the skills to take out most lower-tier fighters. However, the Canadian Nick Denis is to lower-tier opponent. A King of the Cage and Sengoku veteran, Denis has 10 finishes in his 10 victories, and his 2 losses have been at the hands of two of the best fighters in the division, Marlon Sandro and Yuji Hoshino.
Although this is Denis' first fight in the Octagon, I don't expect nerves to be an issue, and expect him to finish Sandoval, likely in the first, and send the Texan back to the minor leagues. Nick Denis via TKO - Round 1.
Featherweight bout: Daniel Pineda (15-7) vs. Pat Schilling (5-0)
Daniel Pineda has been around the block and back. Finally making his UFC debut after compiling a 5 fight winning streak, and going 4-0 in 2011. Pineda is another strong finisher, with every one of his victories coming by TKO, KO or submission. In Schilling, he faces a relative unknown. Undefeated on the regional circuit and compiling a 10-0 record in his amateur career, Schilling is a hard opponent to prepare for, and no slouch on the ground, or on the feet.
This fight could really go either way, and although I slightly favor Pineda, I'm going to pick the underdog, Schilling, to use his striking to set up a takedown, and work his way into a submission. Pat Schilling via Submission - Round 3.
Lightweight bout: Fabrício Camoes (13-6-1) vs. Tom Hayden (8-0)
Brazilian MMA veteran Camoes returns to the Octagon for the first time in nearly two years to take on undefeated prospect Hayden. Both men are accomplished grapplers, with a clear edge going to Camoes.
Hayden will look to capitalize on his first opportunity in the big leagues and make a name for himself by attempting to finish Camoes. I expect Hayden to try and take this fight to the ground, but unfortunately for him, Camoes will catch him and make him pay. Fabricio Camoes via Submission - Round 1.
Welterweight bout: Charlie Brenneman (14-3) vs. Daniel Roberts (12-3)
Any fan of the UFC should be familiar with these two gentleman. After shocking the world by taking out surging welterweight Rick Story, Brenneman found himself on the wrong end of a headkick by recently released Anthony "Rumble" Johnson, in what some would consider an early stoppage. Roberts, a decorated grappler in his own right, has had mixed results in the octagon, compiling a 3-3 record, with losses coming to some of the divisions top mid-level fighters.
Expect this fight to go to the ground. "Ninja" is always dangerous on the ground, but the smart money is on Brenneman controlling this fight from bell to bell, and grinding out a lackluster, but well-earned, decision victory. Charlie Brenneman via Unanimous Decision.
Lightweight bout: Kamal Shalorus (7-1-2) vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov (16-0)
The Iranian wrestler Shalorus is no joke. Suffering only one career loss to headliner Jim Miller, the 39 year old should be looking to stand and brawl in this fight, as he usually does. Nurmagomedov has never fought in the big stage, but the undefeated Russian has excellent Sambo skills and has been very dominate in his wins, with 12 of his 16 victories coming inside the distance.
This fight is tough to call, Shalorus should have the edge, with his granite chin and underutilized grappling skills, but Nurmagomedov is a serious threat. I'll flip a coin here and take Nurmagomedov with the decision victory, although the opposite result would not come as a surprise to me. Khabib Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision.
Middleweight bout: Jorge Rivera (19-9) vs. Eric Schafer (12-6-2)
Rivera is tough as nails, and has fought some of the best fighters in the world. Despite losing to the majority of his top opponents, his resume includes bouts against Anderson Silva, Kendall Grove, Denis Hallman, Nate Quarry, Rich Franklin, Lee Murray, Martin Kampmann, Michael Bisping, and Constantinos Philippou. Looking to use his powerful striking, I expect Rivera to try his best to keep this fight standing. However, in Eric "Red" Schafer, he faces an excellent grappler with a fair resume of his own. "Red" has 8 wins by submission, and will likely look for his 9th here.
Another tough fight to call, obviously if the fight stays on the feet, Rivera is taking home the victory in violent fashion, however, I expect Schafer to drop levels, bring Rivera out of his comfort zone, and make the 39 year old tap out in the first 10 minutes. Eric Schafer via Submission - Round 1.
The Main Card (Live on FX)
Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry (6-4) vs. Christian Morecraft (7-2)
Barry is an exciting fighter with ridiculously good striking, as I'm sure you've all seen. Morecraft is tough as nails, but has shown how quickly he crumbles when the leather hits his face. Although Morecraft is a more well-rounded fighter, the relatively one-dimensional Barry should be able to take advantage of Morecraft's weaknesses.
Expect Barry to use his low base to stuff any potential takedowns by Morecraft and to light him up on the feet with violent accuracy. After the Kongo and Struve fights, I expect he does so more patiently than before. Knockout of the night is coming in this fight, and that cheque is going to "HD". Pat Barry via KO - Round 1.
Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton (11-1) vs. Jared Papazian (14-6)
Easton is a beast. A black belt in both Tae-kwon-do and BJJ, Easton has shown he can mix it up with striking and an excellent grappling acumen. The former Ultimate Warrior Challenge Bantamweight Champion has momentum on his side, riding a six fight winning streak, and coming off his October UFC debut where he demolished Byron Bloodworth. Papazian is a good fighter in his own right, with a majority of his wins coming by decision, he too is on a small winning streak of his own, compiling victories over Kana Hyatt, Abel Cullum, and Marvin Garcia - all in KotC and all via decision.
I expect Papazian to try for yet another decision victory here, perhaps even playing it safe. However, Easton's skills should prove too much for him, and I expect "The Hulk" to finish this fight within the distance, possibly with strikes. Mike Easton via TKO - Round 3.
Co Main Event: Welterweight bout: Duane Ludwig (21-11) vs. Josh Neer (32-10-1)
The man with the fastest KO in UFC history, Duane “Bang” Ludwig steps back into the cage for the first time since a Unanimous Decision victory over Amir Sadollah in August of 2011. The experienced striker, probably the best in the Welterweight division, looks for his 11th KO/TKO victory against Neer. “The Dentist” however, is not a stepping stone for anyone. Riding a five fight winning streak, the two time “fight of the night” winner is looking to cement himself as a contender in the division.
Ludwig will use his superior striking to put the hurt on Neer, and Neer will stand and bang as long as it takes for him to set up a takedown. Unfortunately for “Bang”, I believe “The Dentist” will more successful in implementing his gameplan. I expect a decision or submission for Neer, but if this fight stays standing, it could go either way, and will be a candidate for fight of the night. Josh Neer via Split Decision.
Main Event: Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard (29-9-2) vs. Jim Miller (20-3)
“The Young Assassin” Guillard is a dangerous striker. After wrecking nearly all who stood before him in the division, he fell victim to his suspect chin and lack of ground game when Joe Lauzon tagged him and choked him at UFC 136. However, a veteran of 40 fights, Guillard is used to adversity, and looks to bounce back into the title picture by making an example of Jim Miller. Miller can relate to Guillard's situation. Miller, a dangerous grappler, with some pretty good striking of his own, tore through the Lightweight division, and was all but guaranteed a title shot. Until he faced Benson Henderson. Suffering a lopsided decision loss to the now Lightweight title challenger, Miller was sent back to the drawing board.
This fight is will be wild. Both men are hungry, both want back in that title picture, and both have many ways to end this fight. I see this fight as being very similar to the Guillard/Lauzon fight. Miller will open up with strikes, get this fight to the ground, and give Guillard his second submission loss in as many fights. Jim Miller via Submission – Round 2.
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller takes place this Friday, January 20th, live on FUEL TV and FX. The preliminary card airs live at 6 p.m. ET, with the main card beginning at 9 p.m. ET.
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