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This Saturday, The Ultimate Fighting Championship returns to pay-per-view to present its 197th televised event, UFC 143. Featuring three marquee bouts, including Roy "Big Country" Nelson taking on the first man to ever legitimately defeat Fedor Emelianenko, Fabricio Werdum; an intriguing welterweight bout between Mike Pierce and top ranked Josh Koscheck; and the first welterweight title fight in six years to not feature George St. Pierre, a five round fight between "The Natural Born Killer" Carlos Condit and Nick Diaz. As with always, I'll be breaking down the card in depth, bout by bout, and providing you with my picks for the most reasonable outcome. So, let's get started with the preliminary bouts.
Preliminary Card (Live on Facebook)
Middleweight bout: Rafael Natal (13-3-1) vs Michael Kuiper (11-0)
Returning to the octagon for the first time since UFC 133, Rafael "Sapo" Natal comes in to the cage with a 1-1-1 record in his three UFC bouts. A BJJ black belt with a capoeira background, Natal, can hold his own in the striking department, but isn't on the same level as most mid-tier middleweights. On the other side of the cage, the undefeated Judo player, Kuiper, makes his debut on the big stage with 10 finishes in his 11 victories. However, his opponents have had fairly bad records, and do not really give a good idea of where the 22 year old stands in his skill set.
Although it could be said that the grappling edge goes to Natal, Kuiper is a purple belt in BJJ himself, as well as a Judo black belt. Although this fight could really go either way, with patience, grappling, and better striking, I can see Kuiper shutting down Natal. I'm pulling for the underdog here, and saying Kuiper either decisions or scores the TKO victory on Natal. Michael Kuiper defeats Rafael Natal via Unanimous Decision.
Welterweight bout: Dan Stittgen (7-1) vs Stephen Thompson (5-0)
Classic striker vs grappler match. Dan Stittgen, the grappler, comes in as a late replacement for Justin Edwards, the only man to ever defeat him. A training partner of Clay Guida, Stittgen has excellent wrestling, but atrocious striking. On the opposite side, Thompson, despite only having five pro MMA fights to his name, is an accomplished kickboxer, a Japanese Jiu Jitsu black belt who trains under Carlos Machado, and he was brought in to train with GSP as he prepared for Condit, so he has trained with elite fighters.
There's not much tape to look at with these two, and this fight has a lot of unknowns. If it hits the ground, I wouldn't be shocked if Stittgen could pull off a submission on Thompson, but I expect the undefeated Thompson to stuff the takedowns and make Stittgen pay on the feet en route to a stoppage. Stephen Thompson defeats Dan Stittgen via TKO - Round Three.
Preliminary Card (Live on FX)
Welterweight bout: Matt Brown (12-11) vs Chris Cope (5-2)
Matt "The Immortal" Brown has had some bad luck as of late. 1-4 in his last five fights, Brown could very well, as is usually the case for this him, be fighting for his job. Brown tends to get submitted when he loses, but he's faced many high-level grapplers. Cope returns to the cage coming off a lightning quick TKO loss to Che Mills, coming off of two straight wins prior to that.
This fight has a lot of unknowns as well, Brown has never been stopped by strikes, and I don't believe Cope has the grappling prowess to submit Brown. I suspect Brown outworks Cope on the feet, uses his Judo to dictate the grappling, and once again survives a do or die fight. Matt Brown defeats Chris Cope via TKO - Round One.
Bantamweight bout: Alex Caceres (6-4) vs Edwin Figueroa (8-1)
Miami based "Bruce Leeroy", Caceres looked phenomenal in his last fight against Cole Escovedo, defeating him via unanimous decision. A relatively good fighter, Caceres fails to excel at either striking, or grappling, but has used his well-rounded game with mixed results, going 2-4 in his last six fights. Figueroa has lost only once, a fight which he took on late notice against the very skilled Michael McDonald. Figueroa has a 100% finishing rate, and a distinct advantage in the striking against Caceres.
"El Feroz" should be able to win this fight very easily. Caceres is just too inconsistent and at this point seems to lack the skills to compete at this level. Edwin Figueroa defeats Alex Caceres via TKO - Round Two.
Welterweight bout: Matt Riddle (5-3) vs Henry Martinez (8-1)
Matt Riddle has eight fights, all within the UFC, needless to say, it has not been an easy career for him. A relatively good wrestler with a purple belt in BJJ and cardio for days, Riddle took this fight on short notice. Martinez took this fight on even shorter notice, having fought just two weeks before this event, defeating Ali Hanjani. Normally a lightweight, this fight provides a step up in competition, and weight division for Martinez.
Martinez is largely unknown, but highly touted amongst those who train with him. I expect his size disadvantage to be a significant factor, and Riddle to beat him up for the full fifteen minutes. Matt Riddle defeats Henry Martinez via Unanimous Decision.
Featherweight bout: Dustin Poirier (11-1) vs Max Holloway (4-0)
My god this Dustin Poirier. Derailing Josh Grispi, Pablo Garza and Jason Young, "Diamond" is 4-1 in his last five, and has only been defeated once in his entire career. With good striking, and excellent grappling, Poirier appears to be only a couple fights away from a title shot. The undefeated Holloway steps in without a whole lot of experience. A fast-paced fighter, this truly will be his biggest test.
Whether it be octagon jitters, a massive adrenaline dump, or just a lack of experience, I expect Holloway to not be so impressive in this fight. Against a fighter like Poirier, if you don't come in at your best (and often, even if you do,) you'll be getting beat down. Poirier outstrikes the green Holloway, gets him down, and gets the submission. Dustin Poirier defeats Max Holloway via Submission - Round One.
Main Card (Live on PPV)
Middleweight bout: Ed Herman (19-8) vs Clifford Starks (8-0)
Herman has fought some top competition in his UFC career. "Short Fuse" has 17 finishes in his 19 wins, with a majority coming via submission. 3-1 and his last four, Herman comes into this PPV opener looking to leave an impression on the audience. Starks, undefeated in his MMA career, is an accomplished wrestler with half of his victories coming by submission. Starks, however, has not faced any top competition this early in his career.
Aaron Simpson took down Ed Herman with ease in their fight, and Starks should also be able to take Herman down. However, Starks inexperience in MMA could be his downfall, as Herman has the grappling prowess to work off of his back, and considerably better striking if it stays standing. Starks has a good shot at taking this the distance, but I suspect Herman comes out on top in this bout. Ed Herman defeats Clifford Starks via Submission - Round Three.
Bantamweight bout: Renan Barão (27-1 1NC) vs Scott Jorgensen (13-4)
Aside from the main event, this fight screams "Fight of the Night", if you're not excited for this fight, you need to have your pulse checked. Renan Pegado, better known as Barão, comes in on the heels of a 27 fight undefeated streak, with his only loss coming in his first fight. With nearly half of his victories coming by submission, it is very clear that he is a grappling wizard. That said, his striking is also on another level. Jorgensen, a former WEC bantamweight title challenger, is a Division 1 wrestler, with decision victories over great grapplers and great strikers.
Jorgensen can win this fight by putting Barão on his back and grinding out a decision, as I expect him to try to do. Barão obviously has other plans, and wants to make a case for a title shot in the near future. While Jorgensen has looked good, he certainly has also underwhelmed in several performances, he needs to be his best in this fight, and even then, it might not be enough. While a decision for Jorgensen would not surprise me, I'm going to go with the odds and pick Barão with the submission win or the decision. Renan Barão defeats Scott Jorgensen via Submission - Round Three.
Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck (16-5) vs Mike Pierce (13-4)
Josh Koscheck is back again and I expect we'll get a nice trash talk package before the fight on Saturday. Kos is coming off a first round knockout of Matt Hughes back in September, and with GSP out of the picture until at least the fall, one has to think Koscheck is hoping to get another title shot soon. Although Kos is a great wrestler, with a hell of a lot of power in his fists, Pierce is also a great wrestler. 1-1 in his last two, both being split decisions, it's obvious that any fight with Pierce can be a close one.
I expect this fight to be a long one. Koscheck will outwrestle Pierce, beat him standing, and not be controlled on the ground at all. A lot of people are giving Pierce a chance, and you can never count anybody out in the fight game, but I think Hendricks beating Fitch is making people a little crazy when it comes to the old guard of the welterweight division. Josh Koscheck defeats Mike Pierce via Unanimous Decision.
Heavyweight bout: Roy Nelson (16-6) vs Fabricio Werdum (14-5-1)
Roy Nelson has only been stopped once. Fabricio Werdum has only been stopped once. Both by strikes, both by heavy handed and skilled boxers. "Big Country" and "Vai Cavalo" are both exceptional grapplers. Okay, that was an understatement, they're both amazing grapplers. Both have faced great competition, mixing wins and losses.
This fight was probably the hardest one for me to pick, both men, despite being so different, are also very similar. Werdum wants to make a good impression in his return to the UFC, but I can't see him submitting Nelson. Nelson wants to make a good impression as he tries to reinvent himself to surge back up the rankings in the UFC, but I can't see him submitting Werdum. In the end, this fight comes down to the striking. Both men hit hard, both men can land bombs, and both men have good chins, but in the end, I give the edge, ever so slightly, to Roy Nelson. Although it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if Werdum won a decision, I have to go the other way. Roy Nelson defeats Fabricio Werdum via Split Decision.
Interim Welterweight Championship bout: Nick Diaz (26-7 1NC) vs Carlos Condit (27-5)
For the first time in six years, we have a welterweight title bout that doesn't contain George St. Pierre. You can call me a hater for this, but thank god. George, while long being the #2 and now #3 fighter in the world (behind Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, obviously) is a great fighter, but his fights bore me to no end (and I'm Canadian.) So it's great to see two of the most exciting welterweights in recent memory going head to head for a belt. Diaz, undefeated since a doctor stoppage loss to KJ Noons, but realistically undefeated since early 2006, has defeated everyone that has stood before him. Paul Daley, Cyborg, Noons, BJ Penn, Cyborg, Frank Shamrock.. the list goes on. Diaz is widely regarded as the best welterweight on the planet outside of GSP, with a lot of debate coming there as well. For Condit, the nickname "Natural Born Killer" fits him very well. Having not lost since a 2009 bout to Martin Kampmann in his UFC debut, the last WEC welterweight champion has finished 26 foes in his 27 wins, 13 by submission, 13 by KO/TKO.
I can only break this fight down one way. Nick Diaz is a better striker, a better grappler, and has better cardio. Condit is no slouch in any aspect of the game, a dangerous striker and grappler in his own right. When you look at their previous performances, Diaz was dropped against heavy handed Paul Daley, although he eventually scored the TKO victory. If Condit brings a similar strategy and throws with more power than ever before, he could very well do some damage to Diaz. That said, Rory MacDonald was absolutely beating Condit until he gassed in round three and suffered a stoppage with seven seconds left, a stoppage many feel was unjust, as Rory Mac was still defending himself and was well on his way to a 29-28 decision victory. The RoryMac bout exposed a few holes in Condit's game, and if he wants to hang with Diaz, he better have got those issues fixed, because Diaz will not gas.
I expect Nick Diaz to use a boxing heavy attack, peppering Condit with body shots and a few hundred punches to the face, taking round after round against Condit, and as the fight goes on, it will get easier and easier for Diaz. If Condit takes him down, Diaz should be able to work his superior BJJ to finish Condit, or at least get it back to the feet. While Condit very well could win this fight, Diaz has more tools, more openings, and more ways to win this fight. If not a 4th or 5th round stoppage for Diaz, he will win a decision, and go on to give the fans the dream match-up at welterweight, Nick Diaz vs GSP. Nick Diaz defeats Carlos Condit via Unanimous Decision.
No matter how the fights play out this Saturday, between Barão/Jorgensen and Diaz/Condit, fans will be treated to some of the best fights that the UFC will have presented in recent months, and the title pictures should be a little more clear after Saturday's event. Enjoy the fights everyone!
