JOE'S PICKS AND ANALYSIS FOR THE UFC ON FUEL TV MAIN CARD
By Joe Lebeau on 2/15/2012 12:35 PM
On Wednesday night, the UFC makes its "official" debut on FUEL TV, with its first fight night event, UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Ellenberger. Today, I'll be breaking down the main card. Featuring an intriguing welterweight bout between Jake Ellenberger and Diego Sanchez, as well as a heavyweight throwdown between Stefan Struve and Dave Herman, this card promises to leave fans on the edge of their seat.
Here are my picks and my breakdown of the six main card bouts.
Bantamweight bout: Ivan Menjivar (23-8) vs John Albert (7-1)
The "Pride of El Salvador" Ivan Menjivar looks to build on his successful UFC campaign with his third fight in the octagon. A 12 year veteran of the sport, Menjivar is in his prime, and with eight submissions and nine KO/TKOs to his credit, he is more than capable of finishing a fight. Coming off a strong performance against Dustin Pague in his UFC debut in December, John Albert returns to the cage looking for his eighth victory. Albert has sufficient striking, and can hold his own on the ground if needed.
A majority of Menjivar's losses come by decision, and I just don't see him being decisioned, knocked out, or submitted in this fight. look for Ivan to use his striking to set up his, excellent grappling, and get his 9th submission victory.
Ivan Menjivar defeats John Albert via submission - round one.
Bantamweight bout: T.J. Dillashaw (4-1) vs Walel Watson (9-3)
Fast and technically adept on the ground, Dillashaw is a good wrestler with a dominate top game. His ground and pound can cause problems, and his stamina is an asset in the bantamweight division. Watson, an excellent grappler in his own right, combines his strong BJJ game with his flashy striking. Watson's long limbs usually give him a reach advantage, as well as give his opponents much to be concerned with when the fight hits the ground.
While Watson is more than capable of submitting Dillashaw, I suspect T.J to take this fight to the ground as quickly, and as often as possible, using top control and ground and pound. While Watson is always dangerous, I expect Dillashaw to make this a long night for him.
T.J. Dillashaw defeats Walel Watson via unanimous decision.
Heavyweight bout: Stipe Miocic (7-0) vs Philip De Fries (8-0 1 NC)
Stipe Miocic is looking to remain undefeated in his career and go 2-0 in the UFC. With his most recent appearance, a one-sided beating of Joey Beltran, he proved that he can dictate the pace of a fight as it goes the distance. Also undefeated in his career, the Englishman Philip De Fries went the distance in his UFC debut as well, a unanimous decision over Rob Broughton. The submission specialist has earned all of his other victories using his bread and butter, his fantastic grappling.
In what can best be described as a striker vs grappler match, with each having a distinct advantage over the other in their perspective areas of expertise, the difference may come down to the wrestling. While De Fries will be looking to take this fight to the ground, Miocic's wrestling experience should allow him to keep it standing and guide him to an early victory.
Stipe Miocic defeats Philip De Fries via TKO - round one.
Middleweight bout: Aaron Simpson (11-2) vs Ronny Markes (12-1)
Aaron "A-Train" Simpson is always growing as his career progresses. A wrestler. he has proven himself to be a dangerous striker as well, as seen in his last fight against Eric Schafer. The Brazilian Markes makes his middleweight debut on the strength of a five fight winning streak, which includes decision victories over Karlos Vemola and Paulo Filho. Always dangerous, Markes is more than capable of finishing a foe with strikes, submissions.
Although Simpson may have to weather an early storm from Markes, the weight cut may prove to be detrimental for the Brazilian. As the fight goes on, Simpson's stamina, wrestling prowess, and clinch game, should help him in getting the nod.
Aaron Simpson defeats Ronny Markes via unanimous decision.
Co-Main Event - Heavyweight bout: Stefan Struve (22-5) vs Dave Herman (21-2)
Stefan Struve, the 6'11" fighter has had quite the run in his nine UFC fights. He has managed to put together six wins and three losses since his debut. While Struve has shown his toughness and heart in his victories, his defeats have been violent. Herman, who now calls Team Quest home, made his UFC debut with a victory over the always tough Jon Olav Einemo, in what would be a "Fight of the Night" winner. Formerly known as "Pee Wee", the now Sasquatch-esque Herman comes into this fight with 15 of his 21 victories coming by KO/TKO, and undoubtedly will look to make it 16.
Struve has a reach advantage, and continues to look more technically sound every time he steps into the octagon. The only problem with Struve appears to be his suspect chin. Herman, on the other hand, is known for having an excellent chin, great submission defense, and crazy power. I see a clear advantage for Herman. He should be able to drag Struve into a brawl, and make quick work of the Dutch striker.
Dave Herman defeats Stefan Struve via knockout - round one.
Main Event - Welterweight bout: Diego Sanchez (23-4) vs Jake Ellenberger (26-5)
"The Dream" comes into this bout after a controversial decision victory over Martin Kampmann nearly a year ago, a fight many believe he should have lost. The former lightweight title challenger is hoping for a big win to remain relevant in the crowded welterweight division. Ellenberger may be fighting for something more. "The Juggernaut" may find himself on the cusp of a title shot, or at the very least, a number one contender bout. With GSP and Condit scheduled for late 2012, with a win here and one more before the year is done, he may very well be the next title challenger.
It's no question that Jake has the power to stop just about anyone, as he showed against Jake Shields back in September. On the other hand, Diego has never been knocked out, his one TKO loss coming via doctor stoppage. I expect this fight to stay mostly on the feet, with Sanchez likely trying to engage in his usual brawling style. Diego has the stamina and ability to push the pace, which may show as Ellenberger slows late in the fight, however, I expect Ellenberger to clearly win the first two rounds, and possibly the third, en route to a unanimous decision victory.
Jake Ellenberger defeats Diego Sanchez via unanimous decision.
Wednesday's fight card looks to be an explosive one that will show the full gamut of what mixed martial arts offers, and should be a treat to diehard and casual fans alike.
The preliminary card gets underway at about 6:15pm EST on The UFC's Facebook page, with the main card starting at 8pm EST on FUEL TV in the United States and Rogers Sportsnet in Canada.
