UFC 144 PRELIMINARY CARD PREDICTIONS AND ANALYSIS
By Joe Lebeau on 2/23/2012 4:12 PM
UFC 144 comes to us from the Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan this Saturday, and before the huge main card begins, fans will be treated to one fight on Facebook, and four fights live on FX. Here's my breakdown of the five preliminary fights:
Tiequan Zhang (15-2) vs Issei Tamura (6-2)
Widely regarded as one of, if not the, best mixed martial artist to come out of China, Zhang looks to get back into the win column after a unanimous decision loss to Darren Elkins in his most recent appearance. “The Mongolian Wolf†is known for having an excellent guillotine choke and will look to use it in this fight. Late replacement Tamura steps in on only two weeks notice. Replacing injured Leonard Garcia, the Shooto vet looks to rebound from a loss of his own, having lost to Guy Delumeau in November. He loves to throw hands and shoots in hard for a takedown. However, when he gets to the ground, he really doesn’t do much.
While Zhang has the clear advantage in this bout, the decision-friendly Tamura is no slouch and could very well grind out a decision victory. That said, I feel he over-commits to some of his takedowns, and Zhang should be able to capitalize and lock in a Guillotine Choke.
Tiequan Zhang defeats Issei Tamura via Submission - Round one
Takeya Mizugaki (15-6-2) vs Chris Cariaso (12-3)
Longtime WEC fighter Mizugaki returns to the octagon following his brutal TKO of Cole Escovedo. Having mixed success in his Zuffa career, Mizugaki has traded wins and losses in all of his eight fights inside of a Zuffa cage. With eight decisions in twelve wins, “Kamikaze†Cariaso comes into this fight trading wins and losses in his own Zuffa career. Cariaso brings a variety of striking to this bout, and has no problem going the distance if needed.
This fight could very well be a fire fight. Both men have effective striking, stamina, and can take a punch. The difference comes down to speed and technical prowess and I feel Mizugaki has the edge in those categories. As long as he keeps the pressure on, the victory is his.
Takeya Mizugaki defeats Chris Cariaso via Unanimous Decision
Riki Fukuda (17-5) vs Steve Cantwell (7-5)
After a car accident took him out of action Fukuda finally returns to the cage. Nearly a year to the day removed from a controversial decision loss to Nick Ring, the Japanese wrestler is looking to score his first UFC victory. A man who surprisingly still finds himself employed, Cantwell is undoubtedly fighting for his job this Saturday. Despite a promising start in his Zuffa career, “The Robot†has lived up to his nickname, fighting like one through his four straight decision losses. I don't like to discredit any fighter, but Cantwell is likely going to be looking for a job after this fight. Fukuda is relentless, a strong wrestler, and can hold his own on the feet. If Fukuda loses, he'll still be employed, if Cantwell losses, he's gone, and good riddance.
Riki Fukuda defeats Steve Cantwell via Unanimous Decision
Norifumi Yamamoto (18-5 1 NC) vs Vaughan Lee (11-7-1)
A former Olympic hopeful, the K-1 Hero’s 2005 Lightweight Grand Prix winner champion “Kid†Yamamoto is a knockout artist and a fantastic wrestler. Having only one victory since his 2007 win over Rani Yahya, “Kid†has not faired well in the UFC, going 0-2. Noticibly slowing, Yamamoto is 1-4 in his last five and likely needs a win here to remain relevant. The Brit, Lee, makes his second UFC appearance, coming off a loss to Cariaso in his debut at UFC 138. A well-rounded grappler, Lee has nine first round finishes to his credit and hopes to make “Kid†number ten. Lee has been overmatched in his career, having easy opponents all too often.
All fanboyism aside, I’m taking “Kid†in this fight. While Lee has some clever submissions in his arsenal, he lacks the wrestling to get where he needs to be, ESPECIALLY against Yamamoto, anyone who thinks otherwise is crazy. Lee is terrible off of his back and while the submission threat is always there, Yamamoto dictates where this fight goes, and puts Lee to sleep within the first five minutes.
Norifumi Yamamoto defeats Vaughan Lee via Knockout - Round one
Takanori Gomi (32-8 1 NC) vs Eiji Mitsuoka (18-7-2)
A PRIDE icon, “The Fireball Kid†looks for his second UFC win this weekend when he steps into the Saitama Super Arena. Having stood across the cage from some of the best fighters in MMA history, Gomi is no stranger to big fights. With powerful fists, as demonstrated when he knocked out Tyson Griffin and Hayato Sakurai, Gomi is dangerous for anyone with a chin. A replacement for George Sotiropoulos, Mitsuoka is a accomplished grappler. With eleven wins by submission, it’s no question what he intends to do. Holding victories over notable fighters such as Joachim Hansen and Bruno Carvalho, Mitsuoka is clearly a threat.
Gomi’s best weapons are his fists. Mitsuoka’s best weapons are his submissions. While this on paper looks like a clear cut win for Mitsuoka, he has his weaknesses. While he has the submission chops required to win, his wrestling is lacking and he doesn’t set up his shots well. Should Gomi be prepared for telegraphed takedown attempts, he should be able to keep this on the feet. However, I can’t see him knocking out Mitsuoka. This fight could go either way, but I’m going to take Gomi.
Takanori Gomi defeats Eiji Mitsuoka via Unanimous Decision
Check back tomorrow for my breakdown of the seven fight main card!
