UFC 144 MAIN CARD PREDICTIONS AND ANALYSIS
By Joe Lebeau on 2/24/2012 8:30 PM
The Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan is the place to be this Saturday night for UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson. Featuring a seven fight main card, the pay-per-view portion of this card is stacked with exciting, important, and downright awesome fights that can make even the most reserved of fight fans jump out of their seats.
Here's my breakdown of the main card, airing live on pay-per-view at 10pm EST.
Anthony Pettis (14-2) vs Joe Lauzon (21-6)
The final WEC lightweight champion, Anthony Pettis continues his campaign for the UFC lightweight title shot. The man behind the infamous "Showtime Kick", Pettis looks to build off of his UFC 136 victory over Jeremy Stephens. A kickboxer with a fantastic submission game, Pettis is looking to make a big statement in this fight. "J-Lau" also looks for a title shot, something that has eluded him since his UFC debut in 2006. After making short work of would-be contender Melvin Guillard in his last bout, the BJJ purple belt and seven time UFC bonus recipient looks for his third straight win, and his seventh straight bonus.
Pettis is clearly the favorite in this fight. With exceptional grappling, unorthodox and precise striking, and a well-rounded game overall, Pettis has the tools to take this fight. Lauzon, however, looks to spoil the party as always, and undeniably has the tools to do so. I am really tempted to pick Lauzon in this fight, but he'll likely have to push the pace and finish Pettis quick if he intends on walking away with the win. If you're looking for a the logical outcome, Pettis finishes an exhausted Lauzon in the second round.
Anthony Pettis defeats Joe Lauzon via TKO in round two.
Hatsu Hioki (25-4-2) vs Bart Palaszewski (36-14)
Shooto and Sengoku veteran Hatsu Hioki returns home tomorrow and looks to continue his campaign for a title shot. The #2 featherweight in the world, the well-rounded fighter is riding the strength of a five fight win streak. With ten submissions and nine decisions to his credit, it's clear where Hioki's strength lies, but he's no slouch on the feet. "Bartimus" looks to build off of his violent knockout of Tyson Griffin back at UFC 137. While having trouble building consistent winning streaks over the course of his career, Bart has come into his own in since his days in WEC, and looks to earn a shot at Jose Aldo as well. With 28 of his 36 victories coming within the distance, he's certainly not afraid to leave it all in the cage while in attempting to finish his opponents.
Palaszewski's best chance in this fight is to keep Hioki away from him and use his effective striking to beat up the Japanese standout. However, Hioki has a hell of a chin, and if he can get inside, he can take this fight to the ground. I think at the end of this fight, "Bartimus" will once again be a victim of the inconsistencies that have plagued him throughout his career.
Hatsu Hioki defeats Bart Palaszewski via Unanimous Decision
Yushin Okami (26-6) vs Tim Boetsch (14-4)
Making his first appearance in the cage after his loss to champion Anderson Silva, Yushin "Thunder" Okami finally comes home to Japan. The large middleweight is 10-3 in his UFC career. Known for his grinding style, Okami also has heavy hands and a solid chin, and he's not afraid to take the fight to anyone. On the other side of the cage, fighting out of AMC Pankration, Tim Boetsch looks to remain undefeated as a middleweight. After making short work of both Kendall Grove and Nick Ring, "The Barbarian" looks to impose his will once again on Okami. Having dropped down for the 205 pound division due to his inability to impose his will against the larger fighters, Boetsch has had a significant size advantage in his last two bouts, and has publicly stated that his size and strength are his keys to victory in this fight.
Unfortunately for Boetsch, Okami is a pretty large middleweight. With a great clinch, ridiculous top control, and the ability to dictate where a fight goes, Okami is more than capable of securing the victory here. While Boetsch is a big, strong dude, Okami is exactly the fighter that Boetsch dropped to middleweight to avoid.
Yushin Okami defeats Tim Boetsch via Unanimous Decision
Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-4) vs Jake Shields (26-6-1)
Making his welterweight debut, "Sexyama" faces a tough challenge. The Korean-Japanese fighter likely needs a win to stay in the UFC. The Judo black belt brings an effective ground game, as well as some crisp striking, into the his 170 pound debut. Jake Shields, a man long considered to be one of the best fighters in the world after suffering two consecutive losses to Georges St. Pierre and Jake Ellenberger. After briefly considering a move back to middleweight, Jake Shields is refocused and looking to get back into title contention.
While Akiyama has grappling chops, Shields is on an entirely different level. His wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and difficult to deal with grinding style can cause problems for just about anybody. I expect Shields to take control from the very start and dominate the entire fight. I would say Shields takes a decision, but I think Akiyama gasses bad as the fight wears on, and gives up a submission.
Jake Shields defeats Yoshihiro Akiyama via Submission - round three.
Mark Hunt (7-7) vs Cheick Kongo (17-6-2)
Having fought most of his 14 career fights in PRIDE, it's no surprise that Mark Hunt is popular in Japan. The accomplished striker surprised many, myself included, by being successful in the UFC heavyweight division. Having fought some of the best heavyweights in the world, Hunt is not afraid to stand and bang in the octagon. The Frenchman, Kongo, is slowly making his way back up the ladder in the heavyweight division. Kongo has gone 3-0-1 in his last four and along the way he made a miraculous comeback to knockout Pat Barry, and made short work of Matt Mitrione. With most of his victories coming by way of knockout, Kongo hits hard and will be headhunting in this fight.
While Hunt has looked much better in his last few fights, I feel this step up in competition may be a little too much for him. I like Hunt, and I am pulling for him to take the victory here, but the larger Kongo has more ways to win. Kongo will likely use his reach to keep Hunt at bay, and if he feels the need to take the fight to the ground, he will. Kongo's chin is not necessarily the best, and Hunt hits very hard, but Kongo should be able to survive any onslaught, and likely get the ground and pound stoppage. Seriously though, I hope Hunt wins to keep things in the division more interesting.
Cheick Kongo defeats Mark Hunt via TKO - round three.
Quinton Jackson (32-9) vs Ryan Bader (13-2)
"Rampage" is coming home. The heavy-handed striker looks to rebound from his loss to Jon Jones, but this fight means much more than just a win to Jackson. He has stated publically how badly he wanted to fight in Japan, how happy he is to be on this card, and how little a win means to him here, he's just happy to fight in the land of the rising sun. "Rampage" has only lost to the the best of the best in the division. While he has made it to a decision in four of his last five fights, "Rampage" is always capable of knocking anybody out. "The Ultimate Fighter 8" winner Ryan Bader looks to build off his knockout win over Jason Brilz at UFC 139. After suffering back to back losses to Jon Jones and most surprisingly, Tito Ortiz, many questioned where Bader stood in this division. A victory over Jackson would most certainly catapult "Darth" Bader back towards the top of the division.
Whether it was a fluke or not, Bader got rocked bad by Tito Ortiz. If Rampage finds that chin, it's going to be a short night for Bader. While Bader is a good wrestler, he's not as good at using his wrestling in MMA as someone like Rashad Evans is, and even Jon Jones had trouble taking Rampage down early in their fight. I expect this fight to either have a similar outcome as Rampage vs Hamill, or to end violently with Bader out cold.
Quinton Jackson defeats Ryan Bader via Knockout - round one.
Frankie Edgar (14-1-1) vs Benson Henderson (15-2)
A real life "Rocky", Frankie Edgar is the unlikely king of the lightweight division. After defeating BJ Penn and Gray Maynard twice in a row (essentially), Frankie is a man you can never count out. A significantly skilled boxer with strong wrestling, Edgar looks to continue his reign over the 155 pound division. A former WEC lightweight champion, Ben Henderson looks for his fourth straight UFC win, and the coveted lightweight championship, when he steps into the octagon on Saturday night. The large lightweight, known for his durability, heart, conditioning, and "give 'em hell" fighting style, will look to impose his will on the smaller Edgar.
I'm a big fan of Bendo and he has done nothing but improve. The larger, stronger man in this fight, he's fully capable of going 25 minutes with anybody and laying a beating on them. Having said that, I learned my lesson picking against Frankie. Originally, I had expected Bendo to run through Edgar and take that belt, but looking at this fight closely, comparing the two fighters and their contrasting styles, I think Edgar remains on top of the lightweight division. I'm going to take Edgar by decision.
Frankie Edgar defeats Benson Henderson via Unanimous Decision.
That's how I see the card going down, and it should be a good one. Stay tuned to PWInsiderXTRA.com for all your coverage and news on UFC 144!
Enjoy the fights, and PRIDE NEVER DIE!
