UFC ON FX 2 PREDICTIONS AND ANALYSIS
By Joe Lebeau on 3/2/2012 3:45 PM
Just 90 minutes removed from the UFC's return to the land down under, I'm back with an in-depth look at tonight's fights. Featuring the inaugural flyweight tournament, as well as an intriguing welterweight bout between Thiago Alves and Martin Kampmann, tonight's fights are sure to kick off an exciting fight-filled weekend with a bang!
Here's a look at tonight's fights!
Preliminary Card - Facebook
Oli Thompson (9-2) vs. Shawn Jordan (12-3)
Opening up the preliminary card on Facebook, the Brit, Thompson makes his UFC debut after a solid run overseas. The former Strong-Man competitor is currently riding a five fight win streak, having recently captured the UCMMA heavyweight championship. Across the cage from him will be Strikeforce import Shawn Jordan. Fresh off of his Strikeforce Challengers 19 victory over Lavar Johnson, the former college football player is an exciting prospect with heavy hands.
Not much is known about how far Thompson can go in his MMA campaign. Largely untested in his career, he has not faced nearly the level of competition as his opponent. Furthermore, his striking leaves a lot to be desired. With speed and athleticism in his favor, the more likely outcome sees the stone-fisted Jordan finding the Brit’s chin in an entertaining brawl.
Shawn Jordan defeats Oli Thompson via TKO - round one.
Preliminary Card - FUEL TV
Mackens Semerzier (6-3 1 NC) vs. Daniel Pineda (16-7)
“Mack Da Menace†looks to get back on track after his most recent bout, a loss to Robert Peralta, was changed to a no contest due to the two fighters clashing heads. Originally scheduled to be a rematch of the two, Peralta was forced to withdraw, and Semerzier now takes on Pineda. Pineda has been around the block and back. Having finally made his UFC debut in January after compiling a five-fight winning streak, he made short work of Pat Schilling.
These two men are very evenly matched. Both have sufficient striking and solid ground games, and this fight very well might be a toss up. I don’t expect this fight to last long, but I do expect it to be one of the more exciting fights on the card, with Semerzier having the slight edge.
Mackens Semerzier defeats Daniel Pineda via Submission - round one
T.J. Waldburger (14-6) vs Jake Hecht (11-2)
23-year old Waldburger makes his fourth UFC appearance on this card. Having only suffered one loss under the Zuffa banner to top welterweight Johny Hendricks, Waldburger holds victories over Pat Healy, Pete Spratt, and Mike Stumpf. A submission specialist with 11 of his 14 wins coming that way, Waldburger has never been tapped himself. Following elbowing Rich Attonito into a figurative coma, the wrestler Hecht steps into the Octagon on Friday night as a man on a mission. With four straight opponents used as stepping stones to where he is now.
I expect this fight to hit the ground, as that is where each man is strongest. To Hecht’s credit, he has never been submitted, but he has also never faced a grappler quite like Waldburger. I see this fight hitting the mat, likely with Hecht on top, but I think in the end Waldburger gets his hand raised thanks to a slick submission.
T.J. Waldburger defeats Jack Hecht via Submission - round one
Kyle Noke (19-5-1) vs. Andrew Craig (6-0)
Well known Australian fighter Noke returns home this Friday night and hopes to put on a hell of a show. The former bodyguard of the late “Crocodile Hunter†Steve Irwin, Noke has been in the cage with some great fighters, having fought to a Draw with Hector Lombard, making extremely short work of Chris Camozzi, and defeating surging welterweight Brian Ebersole. Stepping in on short notice for Jared Hamman, undefeated Craig has plenty of hype behind him. While relatively unknown, Craig has competed for both Bellator and Legacy Fighting Championship.
The biggest factor in this fight, in my opinion, is the ground games of the respective combatants. Noke can make short work of many on the ground, although he sometimes falters against strong wrestlers. I expect Noke to get this fight to the ground, and although Craig is no slouch, he just doesn’t have the grappling chops to compete with Noke on the floor.
Kyle Noke defeats Andrew Craig via Submission - round one.
Cole Miller (18-5) vs. Steven Siler (19-9)
Longtime UFC fighter Miller returns to the cage for the first time since an August victory over T.J. O’Brien. In what seems to be a recurring theme on this card, Miller is a submission specialist with 13 of his 18 wins coming by way of a tap-out. With solid victories over Ross Pearson and Dan Lauzon to his credit. "Super†Siler fought his way into the UFC by defeating Josh Clopton at December’s Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale. Siler has done very well for himself as of late, losing only twice in official competition since 2007 (and once in an exhibition on TUF). While Siler doesn’t have many signature victories or career-defining moments to his credit, he is more than capable of finishing a fight.
Almost straight out of professional wrestling, an interesting storyline accompanies this fight. Siler defeated Cole’s brother Micah Miller during TUF 14, and Cole is most certainly gunning for redemption here. Miller will have a slight reach advantage and should be able to avoid the strikes of Siler. If this fight hits the ground, as I expect it will, we’ll all be treated to what just may be an excellent grappling clinic. That said, I expect Miller wraps his limbs around the neck of Siler at some point and gets the finish.
Cole Miller defeats Steven Siler via Submission - round two
Anthony Perosh (12-6) vs Nick Penner (11-1)
Australian grappling wiz “The Hippo†looks to build on his two fight winning streak in the UFC. Following a terrible performance against Mirko Filipovic, Perosh decided to drop down in divisions and put together back-to-back Rear Naked Choke victories over Tom Blackledge and Cyrille Diabate. The Canadian Penner looks to take advantage of his momentum coming into his UFC debut. With an eight-fight winning streak behind him, the well-rounded Canuck has not really gone against any significantly great opponents, but he has the skills to finish fights.
Having faced higher level opposition, having more experience, and having great grappling skills, I expect Perosh to have the advantage. While he does lack the striking necessary to compete at the higher level of the division, he has beaten dangerous strikers with disregard for their abilities as a whole.
Anthony Perosh defeats Nick Penner via Submission - round one
James Te Huna (13-5) vs Aaron Rosa (17-4)
Rounding out the preliminary card, the New Zealander Te Huna looks to extend his win streak to two in this light heavyweight battle. A violent striker with wins over Igor Pokrajac, Perosh, and Ricardo Romero, Te Huna has lightning fast hands and can hold his own on the ground as well, although he clearly prefers to keep it standing. After an embarrassing performance against Joey Beltran, Aaron Rosa returned to light heavyweight and scored a decision victory over Matt Lucas in November. The well-rounded Rosa loves to scrap, has submissions in his game, and is relatively hard to finish.
Looking at this fight, I do like Rosa’s chances. His toughness and well-roundedness are assets for him, and he can be a headache for Te Huna, as well as many others in the division. Having said that, I don’t feel like he really excels at any aspect of MMA, and that might be his downfall. He tends to get hit, and you just don’t want to be on the wrong end of Te Huna’s fists.
James Te Huna defeats Aaron Rosa via TKO - round three.
Main Card - FX
Court McGee (14-1) vs. Constantinos Philippou (9-2 1 NC)
Following a ho-hum decision victory over Dongi Yang, Ultimate Fighter 11 winner McGee looks to continue his inspiring life story and score yet another UFC win. While “The Crusher†may not be known for his exciting fight style, he’s a hell of a fighter. Philippou underwhelmed fans in his first two UFC appearances, but he followed up nicely by laying an absolute beating on Jared Hamman in his third outing. The Serra-Longo Fight Team fighter has heavy hands and showed a new level of explosiveness in that particular pairing.
While McGee may take some punishment, as he sometimes has been known to do, I expect he’ll recover while dictating the pace and location of the fight. Once McGee gets into a dominate position, and he will, he will control Philippou.
Court McGee defeats Constantinos Philippou via Unanimous Decision
Demetrious Johnson (14-2) vs Ian McCall (11-2)
Johnson is an exceptionally fast fighter with very dominant wrestling skills. The 25-year old closes the distance quickly and tends to put pressure on his opponents. Explosive on the ground, he is hard to deal with. The #1 ranked flyweight in the world, McCall certainly has an advantage in the moustache department. The former Tachi Palace Fights flyweight champ has turned his life around and gotten back on track. He makes his debut on the grandest stage of them all and looks to live up to his #1 ranking in this bout.
I’m biased. I have been a fan of Ian for a long, long time, and I’m hoping he wins this fight. “Mighty Mouse†has a clear advantage in the wrestling, and if (and likely when) this fight hits the ground, Johnson should be able to scramble out of any unfavorable positions and control the fight. However, “Uncle Creepy†is always dangerous. He has excellent Muay Thai, solid BJJ, and his size/speed will almost certainly negate Johnson’s normal speed advantage. Johnson’s the favorite, for good reason, but I’m going with McCall based on his familiarity with the division and overall skill-set.
Ian McCall defeats Demetrious Johnson via Split Decision
Joseph Benavidez (15-2) vs Yasuhiro Urushitani (19-4-6)
“Joegun Rua†is basically the uncrowned king of the flyweight division. Widely regarded as the favorite in this tournament, the Team Alpha Male fighter has defeated some of the best 135ers out there and looks to continue his streak of dominance at 125. Benavidez loves to stand and bang, but when he gets into his groove he takes the fight to the ground and puts the pressure on. Shooto veteran Urushitani draws the short straw in this tournament. While being very successful in Japan, he faces a very stiff challenge in Benavidez to say the least. With most of his victories coming by decision, there’s no question that Yasuhiro can go the distance and control the pace/location of a fight.
I don’t like to underestimate fighters, but Urushitani needs a miracle here. Benavidez is an unstoppable force, and at 125 he should be a monster. I expect he dominates in the clinch and on the ground, doesn’t gas, dictates every aspect of this fight, and scores a submission late in the fight.
Joseph Benavidez defeats Yasuhiro Urushitani via Submission - round three
Thiago Alves (19-8) vs Martin Kampmann (18-5)
“Pitbull†needs consistency. 2-3 in his last five, Alves made short work of Papy Abedi in his last fight and looks to continue his rise back to the top by defeating Kampmann. A powerful striker and dangerous fighter in general, Alves takes a step up from his previous opponent but such a step is necessary as he looks to get back into the mix at 170 pounds. Kampmann gets robbed all too often. Following questionable and controversial decision losses to Jake Shields and Diego Sanchez, the polished Dane bounced back and made people forget who Rick Story was back in November. “The Hitman†frequently uses crisp and accurate striking inside the Octagon and unquestionably has the advantage on the feet against most of his colleagues.
This fight likely stays on the feet where Kampmann undoubtedly has the technical advantage. However, Alves is always dangerous and has violent power in his hands. If Alves can keep his wits about him, not gas, and keep the fight on the feet, he should be able to get the victory. If the fight hits the ground, Kampmann has a whole arsenal of submissions at his disposal that not many have seen based on his love of kickboxing. I was tempted to go out on a limb and say Alves knocks Kampmann out, but after much deliberation I think Kampmann takes a very, very close decision.
Martin Kampmann defeats Thiago Alves via Split Decision
The preliminary card gets under way at 5:30pm EST on Facebook, 6pm EST on FUEL TV, and the main card begins at 9pm EST on FX!
Enjoy the fights!
